Transcript – Responding to Disasters: When and How to Activate Alternative Capacity?

Our topic is Responding to Disasters When and How to Activate Alternate Capacity. We studied the threshold to activate extra capacity and optimal policy of locating alternative care facilities also called Azia to maximize the survival probability of casualties. Casualties are assigned by a central authority to the hospital for treatment. Each casualty has a survival probability after treatment. We use five solvability function to represent the different scenarios as it is shown in figure one. The central authority may also decide to locate one temporary medical facility near the disaster site and send the casualties there. The casualty at the hospital have a higher survivability than those at the staff location. Otherwise the same shape of the survivability curve. The modern structure is trying to figure to develop a system optimal policy where many consider the marginal effects. Casualties should be sent to that facility with higher survivability considering travel time, curing time, service quality at the facility. Where medical units are located or relocated in terms of the resulting survivability at the two location shall be approximates equal. We apply eight policies in the simulation, each with a different goal and estimation method shown in figure one. The results show that accurate estimates of survivability can improve the average survivability of the casualties compared with such as the standard of casualties to the nearest care facilities. In the future, we plan to develop an accurate estimation of marginal survivability and the test of corresponding policy and then integrate the policy. For example, opening and a casualty dispatching.